“First, market prices respond to changes in a company’s cash-flow prospects. Second, market prices reflect long-term cash-flow prospects. Companies often need ten years of value-creating cash flows to justify their stock price. For companies with formidable competitive advantages, this period can last as long as thirty years.”
~Alfred Rappaport, Michael J. Mauboussin, and Peter L. Bernstein
Unexpected Articles from this Week
Recent studies suggest that overall progress in science and technology is slowing, with papers and patents becoming less likely to push the field in new directions. This decline in innovation is widespread across fields and is likely due to a narrowing in the use of previous knowledge. This has implications for economic growth, human health and wellbeing, and national security, as well as global efforts to combat grand challenges such as climate change. Read more here.
Researchers at the University of Munich have found that the double-bounce walking pattern of humans is an energy-saving technique that has evolved due to the unique anatomy of the human foot. This new model of human walking can be used to improve prosthetic and robotic designs and give insight into the evolutionary pressures our ancestors faced. Read more here.
Recent census data shows that Pennsylvania experienced a population decrease of around 40,000 people between July 2021 and July 2022 due to an increased number of deaths caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with more people leaving the state for other locations. This is in contrast to the overall modest increase seen in the US population. Read more here.
In November, demand for employment remained high and job openings outnumbered available workers by about 1.7 to 1. The quits rate also increased, which is indicative of worker confidence that they can leave their jobs and find other employment. The ISM Manufacturing Index for December showed that the labor market for the manufacturing sector is solid. Markets will be watching later in the week for the Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show a gain of 200,000 jobs. Read more here.
It is important to understand the debate surrounding sleep and infants. Health experts have developed a new program to help parents with sleep training, based on the Ferber method of helping the baby find its own way to sleep over a few days. There is disagreement about the effectiveness of this method, with some believing it can be detrimental to both the parents and the child. Parents need to be in the driver’s seat and find what works best for them and their baby, while also following precautions for safe and proper co-sleeping. Read more here.
What I am reading
•The Cloud Out of Space? Scientists Scrambling to Prevent Global Data Storage Crisis (Article)
•The Art of Impossible (Book)
•Go Do Deals (Book)
•One Bullet Away (Book)
If you are looking for an investment in your startup, please tell me about your project.
As always – I would enjoy hearing from you (what you found interesting, the format of this email, notes from your own explorations, etc.), feel free to just respond to this email.
Until next week,
Ian Eliason